A $245m fortune awaits … if he can remember his password – I really feel for people in this situation, as I would be very depressed every time the price increased. However in his scenario, if he has access to his wallet file he should be able to brute force crack it – could take a few months/years depending on the size of his password though. If he know parts of it or most of it, it will speed up the recovery process. However, this is the last thing you should rely on.
The number will only continue to go up; in a couple years the same stories will continue to emerge. The best thing you can do is invest your time into safeguarding your keys from hackers, confiscation, extortion, mother nature & yourself; Invest in a hardward wallet & node (my current favourite coldcard & mynode); become a self-sovereign individual (it’s an extremely powerful more). Committing anything Bitcoin-related to memory is a bad idea. Even if you think your memory is amazing, I highly advise against it. Instead of writing your seed or key on a piece of paper (or worse digitally online); get yourself a Cryptosteel, Seed Plate or steel Cobo wallet.
The next biggest threat in my opinion is telling people your own Bitcoin. If you’ve already told them, maybe start to lie about your exact holdings. Don’t allow the government to know your position either – privacy is a right. If you have to send or receive payment; never re-use an address, CoinJoin (to obfuscate predatory KYC requirements), properly manage & control your UTXO’s (individual digital coins), open Lightning channels over TOR etc. Bitcoin is only a “Surveillance Chain” if you allow it to be – level up now. When people have zero knowledge or they think you’ve sold, your OPSEC (operational security) will only improve. Best case scenario you tell no one; but like me, you want all your closest family & friends to see what you see. There’s always trade-offs.
When someone asks me if Bitcoin is risky; this is always my response – “poor security of your keys is the biggest risk”. When it comes to Bitcoin, less is more. Make your security simple yet effective, don’t trade your Bitcoin or swap it for alts. I advise against alts because Bitcoin is the only thing I truly believe in. Ethereum is nowhere near as censorship resistant, decentralized or robust as Bitcoin. Anything other than Bitcoin is out of my comfort zone to recommend; I do not won’t others taking any unnecessary risk. Bitcoin is the most risk-averse play in the world, many just fail to see it yet.
You’re never going to find the perfect asset with zero risk. Bitcoin is the closest I’ve ever found, in my opinion. I would honestly prefer to watch Bitcoin go to zero, than watch the government slowly rob me through inflation & money creation. It’s an asymmetric bet on global financial system as a whole. I’m willing to accept the risk of total failure, even though I personally feel it’s close to zero. It takes a lot of research into the protocol and how money works to find the conviction. If the bull market turns bear (like 2018-19), the losses are going to be the hardest to stomach; it is also possible we never see another bear market – Hyperbitcoinization could kick in. In reality, Bitcoin has never really been in a bear market; if you zoom out Bitcoin has been in a bull market for the last 11 years – it’s all about perspective. If you understand what you’re in & can see it’s value in the long-term, you’ll sleep like a baby. Stress is a silent killer, don’t make things harder for yourself.
In summary, the risk of the Bitcoin network or protocol is the least of your worries, getting the simple stuff correct is far more important. Bitcoin isn’t perfect & there may be an unforeseen way to kill it – No one can truly say for sure. Sure there’s going to be challenges ahead, but I would say it’s highly unlikely at this point given it’s size & global impression. I would say, the legacy financial system is far more risky. Not buying Bitcoin is quickly being viewed as the largest risk. Stack sats or die has a lot of truth to it, even though it’s a bit dark.
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